Some bets only work out in the long run

Some bets only work out in the long run. If you’ve got a bet that only wins one in five times, but pays out ten to one, that’s a bet you should take every time. If you make the bet enough, you’ll consistently double your money. The trouble comes when we lose four times in a row, get scared, then quit.

Of course, odds and payouts are never so clear in real life. We don’t know what the exact odds are of success for the path we’re on. 

Generally speaking, though, we can see if the bet is at least somewhat likely to pay out at some point. Is there an industry? Are people making a living doing this? Is success a microscopic possibility? Or would it get more likely with time?

This is why I’m bullish on longevity and work-life balance. If you can stay in the game long enough, you give yourself more opportunities to hit your bets. Your odds probably increase, too, as you get better. If we’re talking about the creative industry, many people are afraid to make these bets because they’re not a “sure thing.” Since few are willing to make them, the “payout” is quite high (in lifestyle, fulfillment, connections, money, opportunity). 

Are you really on the wrong path? Or have you just not been on the path long enough? There’s no wrong answer.